If You Torture Your Data Long Enough, It Will Confess to Anything: On the Epidemiological Basis of the LNT Model.

This note deals with epidemiological data interpretation supporting the linear no-threshold model, as opposed to emerging evidence of adaptive response and hormesis from molecular biology in vitro and animal models. Particularly, the US-Japan Radiation Effects Research Foundation's lifespan study of atomic bomb survivors is scrutinized. We stress the years-long lag of the data processing after data gathering and evolving statistical models and methodologies across publications. The necessity of cautious interpretation of radiation epidemiology results is emphasized.

A Revised System of Radiological Protection Is Needed.

ABSTRACT: The system of radiological protection has been based on linear no-threshold theory and related dose-response models for health detriment (in part related to cancer induction) by ionizing radiation exposure for almost 70 y. The indicated system unintentionally promotes radiation phobia, which has harmed many in relationship to the Fukushima nuclear accident evacuations and led to some abortions following the Chernobyl nuclear accident. Linear no-threshold model users (mainly epidemiologists) imply that they can reliably assess the cancer excess relative risk (likely none) associated with tens or hundreds of nanogray (nGy) radiation doses to an organ (e.g., bone marrow); for 1,000 nGy, the excess relative risk is 1,000 times larger than that for 1 nGy. They are currently permitted this unscientific view (ignoring evolution-related natural defenses) because of the misinforming procedures used in data analyses of which many radiation experts are not aware. One such procedure is the intentional and unscientific vanishing of the excess relative risk uncertainty as radiation dose decreases toward assigned dose zero (for natural background radiation exposure). The main focus of this forum article is on correcting the serious error of discarding risk uncertainty and the impact of the correction. The result is that the last defense of the current system of radiological protection relying on linear no-threshold theory (i.e., epidemiologic studies implied findings of harm from very low doses) goes away. A revised system is therefore needed.

Shape of radiation dose response relationship for ischaemic heart disease mortality and its interpretation: analysis of the national registry for radiation workers (NRRW) cohort.

Statistically significant increases in ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality with cumulative occupational external radiation dose were observed in the National Registry for Radiation Workers (NRRW) cohort. There were 174 541 subjects in the NRRW cohort. The start of follow up was 1955, and the end of the follow-up for each worker was chosen as the earliest date of death or emigration, their 85th birthday or 31 December 2011. The dose-response relationship showed a downward curvature at a higher dose level >0.4 Sv with the overall shape of the dose-response relationship best described by a linear-quadratic model. The smaller risk at dose >0.4 Sv appears to be primarily associated with workers who started employment at a younger age (<30 years old) and those who were employed for more than 30 years. We modelled the dose response by age-at-first exposure. For the age-at-first exposure of 30+ years old, a linear dose-response was the best fit. For age-at-first exposure <30 years old, there was no evidence of excess risk of IHD mortality for radiation doses below 0.1 Sv or above 0.4 Sv, excess risk was only observed for doses between 0.1-0.4 Sv. For this age-at-first exposure group, it was also found that the doses they received when they were less than 35 years old or greater than 50 years old did not contribute to any increased IHD risk.

COVID-19 and cancer risk arising from ionizing radiation exposure through CT scans: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The surge in the utilization of CT scans for COVID-19 diagnosis and monitoring during the pandemic is undeniable. This increase has brought to the forefront concerns about the potential long-term health consequences, especially radiation-induced cancer risk. This study aimed to quantify the potential cancer risk associated with CT scans performed for COVID-19 detection. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study data from a total of 561 patients, who were referred to the radiology center at Imam Hossein Hospital in Shahroud, was collected. CT scan reports were categorized into three groups based on the radiologist's interpretation. The BEIR VII model was employed to estimate the risk of radiation-induced cancer. RESULTS: Among the 561 patients, 299 (53.3%) were males and the average age of the patients was 49.61 ± 18.73 years. Of the CT scans, 408 (72.7%) were reported as normal. The average age of patients with normal, abnormal, and potentially abnormal CT scans was 47.57 ± 19.06, 54.80 ± 16.70, and 58.14 ± 16.60 years, respectively (p-value < 0.001). The average effective dose was 1.89 ± 0.21 mSv, with 1.76 ± 0.11 mSv for males and 2.05 ± 0.29 mSv for females (p-value < 0.001). The average risk of lung cancer was 3.84 ± 1.19 and 9.73 ± 3.27 cases per 100,000 patients for males and females, respectively. The average LAR for all cancer types was 10.30 ± 6.03 cases per 100,000 patients. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the critical issue of increased CT scan usage for COVID-19 diagnosis and the potential long-term consequences, especially the risk of cancer incidence. Healthcare policies should be prepared to address this potential rise in cancer incidence and the utilization of CT scans should be restricted to cases where laboratory tests are not readily available or when clinical symptoms are severe.

Finite-Sample Bias of the Linear Excess Relative Risk in Cohort Studies of Computed Tomography-Related Radiation Exposure and Cancer.

The linear excess relative risk (ERR) is the most commonly reported measure of association in radiation epidemiological studies, when individual dose estimates are available. While the asymptotic properties of the ERR estimator are well understood, there is evidence of small sample bias in case-control studies of treatment-related radiation exposure and second cancer risk. Cohort studies of cancer risk after exposure to low doses of radiation from diagnostic procedures, e.g., computed tomography (CT) examinations, typically have small numbers of cases and risks are small. Therefore, understanding the properties of the estimated ERR is essential for interpretation and analysis of such studies. We present results of a simulation study that evaluates the finite-sample bias of the ERR estimated by time-to-event analyses and its confidence interval using simulated data, resembling a retrospective cohort study of radiation-related leukemia risk after CT examinations in childhood and adolescence. Furthermore, we evaluate how the Firth-corrected estimator reduces the finite-sample bias of the classical estimator. We show that the ERR is overestimated by about 30% for a cohort of about 150,000 individuals, with 42 leukemia cases observed on average. The bias is reduced for higher baseline incidence rates and for higher values of the true ERR. As the number of cases increases, the ERR is approximately unbiased. The Firth correction reduces the bias for all cohort sizes to generally around or under 5%. Epidemiological studies showing an association between radiation exposure from pediatric CT and cancer risk, unless very large, may overestimate the magnitude of the relationship, while there is no evidence of an increased chance for false-positive results. Conducting large studies, perhaps by pooling individual studies to increase the number of cases, should be a priority. If this is not possible, Firth correction should be applied to reduce small-sample bias.

[Risks of radiodiagnostic examinations in children]. / Risques des examens radiodiagnostiques chez l'enfant.

RISKS OF RADIODIAGNOSTIC EXAMINATIONS IN CHILDREN. The question of cancer risk associated with diagnostic medical exposure during childhood is important in view of the sharp increase in the use of radiological examinations, particularly computed tomography (CT), since the 2000s. Moreover, children represent a population particularly sensitive to ionizing radiation. Although conventional radiology examinations do not seem to be associated with an increased risk of cancer, several epidemiological studies, including some with high statistical power, show an increased risk of leukemia and brain tumors in children exposed to CT scans. These results reinforce the importance of the principles of radiation protection already applied daily in radiology, based on the justification of procedures, substitution as far as possible by techniques that do not expose patients to ionizing radiations (ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging) and, if the use of CT scanners remains essential, systematic optimization of the doses delivered.

RISQUES DES EXAMENS RADIODIAGNOSTIQUES CHEZ L'ENFANT. La question du risque de cancer associé à l'exposition médicale à visée diagnostique pendant l'enfance est importante face à la forte augmentation de l'utilisation des examens radiologiques, notamment des scanners depuis les années 2000. De plus, les enfants représentent une population particulièrement sensible aux rayonnements ionisants. Si les examens de radiologie conventionnelle ne semblent pas associés à un sur-risque de cancer, plusieurs études épidémiologiques, dont certaines de grande puissance statistique, montrent une augmentation du risque de leucémie et de tumeur cérébrale pour des enfants exposés au scanner. Ces résultats renforcent l'importance du respect des principes de radioprotection déjà appliqués quotidiennement en radiologie reposant sur la justification des actes, la substitution autant que possible par des techniques n'exposant pas aux rayonnements ionisants (échographie et imagerie par résonance magnétique) et, si l'emploi du scanner reste indispensable, l'optimisation systématique des doses délivrées.

Lifetime excess absolute risk for lung cancer due to exposure to radon: results of the pooled uranium miners cohort study PUMA.

The Pooled Uranium Miners Analysis (PUMA) study is the largest uranium miners cohort with 119,709 miners, 4.3 million person-years at risk and 7754 lung cancer deaths. Excess relative rate (ERR) estimates for lung cancer mortality per unit of cumulative exposure to radon progeny in working level months (WLM) based on the PUMA study have been reported. The ERR/WLM was modified by attained age, time since exposure or age at exposure, and exposure rate. This pattern was found for the full PUMA cohort and the 1960 + sub-cohort, i.e., miners hired in 1960 or later with chronic low radon exposures and exposure rates. The aim of the present paper is to calculate the lifetime excess absolute risk (LEAR) of lung cancer mortality per WLM using the PUMA risk models, as well as risk models derived in previously published smaller uranium miner studies, some of which are included in PUMA. The same methods were applied for all risk models, i.e., relative risk projection up to <95 years of age, an exposure scenario of 2 WLM per year from age 18-64 years, and baseline mortality rates representing a mixed Euro-American-Asian population. Depending upon the choice of model, the estimated LEAR per WLM are 5.38 × 10-4 or 5.57 × 10-4 in the full PUMA cohort and 7.50 × 10-4 or 7.66 × 10-4 in the PUMA 1960 + sub-cohort, respectively. The LEAR per WLM estimates derived from risk models reported for previously published uranium miners studies range from 2.5 × 10-4 to 9.2 × 10-4. PUMA strengthens knowledge on the radon-related lung cancer LEAR, a useful way to translate models for policy purposes.

Maternal and Fetal Radiation-Induced Cancer Risk From Computed Tomography Pulmonary Angiography During Pregnancy: A Retrospective Cohort Study Across a Multihospital Integrated Health Care Network.

OBJECTIVE: Computed tomography pulmonary angiogram (CTPA) is important to evaluate suspected pulmonary embolism in pregnancy but has maternal/fetal radiation risks. The objective of this study was to estimate maternal and fetal radiation-induced cancer risk from CTPA during pregnancy. METHODS: Simulation modeling via the National Cancer Institute's Radiation Risk Assessment Tool was used to estimate excess cancer risks from 17 organ doses from CTPA during pregnancy, with doses determined by a radiation dose indexing monitoring system. Organ doses were obtained from a radiation dose indexing monitoring system. Maternal and fetal cancer risks per 100,000 were calculated for male and female fetuses and several maternal ages. RESULTS: The 534 CTPA examinations had top 3 maternal organ doses to the breast, lung, and stomach of 17.34, 15.53, and 9.43 mSv, respectively, with a mean uterine dose of 0.21 mSv. The total maternal excess risks of developing cancer per 100,000 were 181, 151, 121, 107, 94.5, 84, and 74.4, respectively, for a 20-, 25-, 30-, 35-, 40-, 45-, and 50-year-old woman undergoing CTPA, compared with baseline cancer risks of 41,408 for 20-year-old patients. The total fetal excess risks of developing cancer per 100,000 were 12.3 and 7.3 for female and male fetuses, respectively, when compared with baseline cancer risks of 41,227 and 48,291. DISCUSSION: Excess risk of developing cancer from CTPA was small relative to baseline cancer risk for pregnant patients and fetuses, decreased for pregnant patients with increasing maternal age, and was greater for female fetuses than male fetuses.

Non-targeted effects and space radiation risks for astronauts on multiple International Space Station and lunar missions.

Future space travel to the earth's moon or the planet Mars will likely lead to the selection of experienced International Space Station (ISS) or lunar crew persons for subsequent lunar or mars missions. Major concerns for space travel are galactic cosmic ray (GCR) risks of cancer and circulatory diseases. However large uncertainties in risk prediction occur due to the quantitative and qualitative differences in heavy ion microscopic energy deposition leading to differences in biological effects compared to low LET radiation. In addition, there are sparse radiobiology data and absence of epidemiology data for heavy ions and other high LET radiation. Non-targeted effects (NTEs) are found in radiobiology studies to increase the biological effectiveness of high LET radiation at low dose for cancer related endpoints. In this paper the most recent version of the NASA Space Cancer Risk model (NSCR-2022) is used to predict mission risks while considering NTEs in solid cancer risk predictions. I discuss predictions of space radiation risks of cancer and circulatory disease mortality for US Whites and US Asian-Pacific Islander (API) populations for 6-month ISS, 80-day lunar missions, and combined ISS-lunar mission. Model predictions suggest NTE increase cancer risks by about ∼2.3 fold over a model that ignores NTEs. US API are predicted to have a lower cancer risks of about 30% compared to US Whites. Cancer risks are slightly less than additive for multiple missions, which is due to the decease of risk with age of exposure and the increased competition with background risks as radiation risks increase. The inclusion of circulatory risks increases mortality estimates about 25% and 37% for females and males, respectively in the model ignoring NTEs, and 20% and 30% when NTEs are assumed to modify solid cancer risk. The predictions made here for combined ISS and lunar missions suggest risks are within risk limit recommendations by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) for such missions.

Lifetime attributable risks (LARs) of cancer in the fetus associated with maternal radiography examinations.

PURPOSE: For various reasons, pregnant women are occasionally exposed to ionizing radiation during radiology examinations. In these situations, it is essential to determine the radiation dose to the fetus and any associated risks. The present study attempts to calculate the mean dose for the fetus to estimate the possible cancer induction and cancer mortality risks resulting from maternal radiography exams. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The GATE Monte Carlo platform and a standard voxelized pregnant phantom were employed to calculate fetal radiation dose during maternal radiography exams. The data published in Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII were used to convert fetal dose to lifetime attributable risks (LARs) of cancer incidence and cancer-related mortality. RESULTS: The fetal doses and LARs of cancer incidence and cancer-related mortality for the radiographs of the chest and skull were negligible. The maximum LAR values for the lateral view of the abdomen in computed and digital radiography are 5598.29 and 2238.95 per 100,000 individuals, respectively. The computed radiography of the lateral view of the abdomen revealed the highest LAR of cancer-related mortality (2074.30 deaths for every 100,000 people). CONCLUSION: The radiation dose incurred by the fetus due to chest and skull radiographs was minimal and unlikely to cause any abnormalities in the fetus. The discernible elevation in the lifetime attributable risk associated with cancer incidence and mortality arising from lateral computed radiography examinations of the abdomen warrants careful consideration within the realm of maternal radiography examinations.

Evaluation of patient radiation dose and risk of cancer from CT examinations.

Computed tomography (CT) examinations have been increasingly requested and become the major sources of patient exposure. The cancer risk from CT scans is contingent upon the amount of absorbed dose of organs. This study aims to determine the organ doses and risk of cancer incidence and mortality from CT examinations at high dose (cumulative effective dose, CED ≥ 100 mSv) in a single day to low dose (CED < 100 mSv) from common CT procedures. Data were gathered from two academic centers of patients aged 15 to 75 years old performed CT examinations during the period of 5 years. CED and organ dose were calculated using Monte Carlo simulation software. Lifetime attributable risk (LAR) was determined following Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII report based on life table and baseline cancer rates of Thai population. At high dose, the highest LAR for breast cancer incidence in young female was 82 per 100,000 exposed patients with breast dose of 148 mGy (CT whole abdomen). The highest LAR for liver cancer incidence in male patient was 72 per 100,000 with liver dose of 133 mGy (multiple CT scans). At low dose, the highest average LAR for breast cancer incidence in young female was 23 per 100,000 while for liver cancer incidence in male patients was 22 per 100,000 (CTA whole aorta). Even though the LAR of cancer incidence and mortality was less than 100 per 100,000, they should not be neglected. The risk of cancer incidence may be increased in later life, particularly in young patients.

Paracelsian 'Bergsucht' - lung cancer or radiation-induced fibrosis?

PURPOSE: Assessment of absorbed doses on organs and tissues of miners during radon exposure in the Schneeberg mines in the sixteenth century and calculation of the probability of occurrence of radiation-induced lung cancer and lung fibrosis, considering the life expectancy characteristic and the absence of smoking. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The expected radon concentration at the Schneeberg mines has been estimated using published data. Modeling of the accumulation of radon in the working tunnels of mine workings was carried out using the RESRAD-Build 4.0, based on the radium concentration in soil and geometric parameters of the mining tunnel from the engravings in Agricola's book. The dynamics of radionuclides in the human body were performed using the WinAct software in accordance with data from ICRP Publications 130 and 137. The values of absorbed doses on the tissues of the respiratory tract were obtained using the IDAC 2.1 program. Several models based on the epidemiology of uranium miners have been used to calculate radiation risks from radon exposure. The probability of male survival at birth and the age-specific frequency of spontaneous lung cancer not associated with radiation for miners of the sixteenth century (nonsmoking men aged 20-40 years) were estimated to properly calculate the radiation risks. RESULTS: The expected radon concentration in the Schneeberg mines was assessed in the range of 75-100 kBq m-3. The average value of the equilibrium factor was estimated as 0.49 ± 0.03. The annual exposure of miners to radon decay products was assessed as 125-165 WLM year-1. The annual values of absorbed doses to different sections of the respiratory tract were calculated, the maximum absorbed doses of α-radiation are formed on the bronchial and bronchiolar regions of the lungs (2.23 Gy year-1). The deterministic effects as radiation fibrosis of the lungs with 10 years of experience in the mines of Schneeberg have a probability of occurrence from 60 to 100%. All the models used for radiation risk assessments showed that the lifetime risk of developing lung cancer for nonsmoking Schneeberg miners is many times lower than the risk of developing deterministic radiation effects. In contrast, for the smoking cohort of miners in the nineteenth century lung cancer become the dominant cause of death. CONCLUSIONS: The deterministic radiation effects of Schneeberg miners in sixteenth century, exposed to extremely high levels of radon, such as radiation pneumosclerosis or pulmonary fibrosis, are more likely than the development of radiation-induced lung cancer.

Risk and Prognostics of Second Primary Cancer After Prostate Radiation Therapy.

INTRODUCTION: As overall survival in prostate cancer increases due to advances in early detection and management, there is a growing need to understand the long-term morbidity associated with treatment, including secondary tumors. The significance of developing radiation-associated secondary cancers in an elderly population remains unknown. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with prostate cancer between 1975 and 2016 in one of 9 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries were included in this study. Risk of second primary pelvic malignancies (SPPMs) were assessed with death as a competing risk using the Fine-Gray model. Time-varying Cox proportional hazard models were employed to analyze risk to overall mortality based on secondary tumor status. RESULTS: A total of 569,167 primary prostate cancers were included in analysis with an average follow-up of 89 months. Among all prostate cancer patients, 4956 SPPMs were identified. After controlling for differences in age, year of diagnosis, and surgery at time of prostate cancer treatment, radiation receipt was associated with a significantly higher incidence of SPPMs (1.1% vs 1.8% at 25 years). Among those who received radiation during initial prostate cancer treatment (n = 195,415), developing an SPPM is significantly associated with worse survival (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.76), especially among younger patients (under age 63, adjusted hazard ratio = 2.36). CONCLUSIONS: While developing a secondary malignancy carries a detrimental effect on overall survival, the absolute risk of developing such tumors is exceedingly low regardless of radiation treatment.

Time-integrated radiation risk metrics and interpopulation variability of survival.

Task Group 115 of the International Commission on Radiological Protection is focusing on mission-related exposures to space radiation and concomitant health risks for space crew members including, among others, risk of cancer development. Uncertainties in cumulative radiation risk estimates come from the stochastic nature of the considered health outcome (i.e., cancer), uncertainties of statistical inference and model parameters, unknown secular trends used for projections of population statistics and unknown variability of survival properties between individuals or population groups. The variability of survival is usually ignored when dealing with large groups, which can be assumed well represented by the statistical data for the contemporary general population, either in a specific country or world averaged. Space crew members differ in many aspects from individuals represented by the general population, including, for example, their lifestyle and health status, nutrition, medical care, training and education. The individuality of response to radiation and lifespan is explored in this modelling study. Task Group 115 is currently evaluating applicability and robustness of various risk metrics for quantification of radiation-attributed risks of cancer for space crew members. This paper demonstrates the impact of interpopulation variability of survival curves on values and uncertainty of the estimates of the time-integrated radiation risk of cancer.

Application of multi-method-multi-model inference to radiation related solid cancer excess risks models for astronaut risk assessment.

The impact of including model-averaged excess radiation risks (ER) into a measure of radiation attributed decrease of survival (RADS) for the outcome all solid cancer incidence and the impact on the uncertainties is demonstrated. It is shown that RADS applying weighted model averaged ER based on AIC weights result in smaller risk estimates with narrower 95% CI than RADS using ER based on BIC weights. Further a multi-method-multi-model inference approach is introduced that allows calculating one general RADS estimate providing a weighted average risk estimate for a lunar and a Mars mission. For males the general RADS estimate is found to be 0.42% (95% CI: 0.38%; 0.45%) and for females 0.67% (95% CI: 0.59%; 0.75%) for a lunar mission and 2.45% (95% CI: 2.23%; 2.67%) for males and 3.91% (95% CI: 3.44%; 4.39%) for females for a Mars mission considering an age at exposure of 40 years and an attained age of 65 years. It is recommended to include these types of uncertainties and to include model-averaged excess risks in astronaut risk assessment.